ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan now accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. The measure applies the international extreme poverty line of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that threshold increased by 6.4 percentage points. This rise made Pakistan the primary contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP regional grouping.
The World Bank indicated that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen collectively account for another 47% of MENAAP’s population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four nations comprise roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. MENAAP now represents about 14% of the world’s extreme impoverished, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, this region remains the sole World Bank classification where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to increase.
Pakistan also experienced a worsening situation at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line, which is used for lower-middle-income economies. The percentage of people living below this threshold increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate reached around 48% in 2024, up from 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this decline to the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, high inflation, currency depreciation, and an extended period of economic adjustment.
Growing poverty pressures after consecutive shocks
These latest findings follow a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added approximately 21 million individuals to the region’s total of those living in extreme poverty. In September 2026, the World Bank noted that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Although Pakistan’s economic growth has improved from recent lows, poverty indicators remain high. The October regional update projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. It also estimates real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026, with an increase to 8.2% in 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification impacts headline poverty figures
The 48% figure stems from the World Bank’s current MENAAP classification, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this change, the World Bank’s regional statistics grouped both countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government described this reclassification as administrative and statistical, asserting it did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income status. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad stated that the revised grouping affected regional poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The October update from the World Bank also projects a weaker regional economy in 2026. It anticipates a contraction of 2.1% in MENAAP’s output following a 3.3% growth in 2025, due to conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade sectors. Developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, are expected to remain relatively resilient within the regional outlook. Growth for this group is projected at 4.3% in 2026, although rising food and energy costs continue to strain household purchasing power across several economies.