PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal might see its daily vessel throughput reduced to approximately 29 ships in February or March 2027 if the drought persists, according to its new head. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her role on Sept. 7 and indicated this potential scenario as El Niño impacts reservoir water levels. Since the canal depends on freshwater from lakes fed by rainfall to operate its locks, authorities are taking measures amid decreasing precipitation across the watershed, which has already prompted phased capacity restrictions.
Starting Sept. 3, the canal provided nine daily Neopanamax slots alongside 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34 available positions. From Sept. 15, Panamax slot availability will decline to 23, reducing total daily capacity to 32. These adjustments stem from diminished rainfall during Panama’s rainy season and decreased inflows into the watershed. The authorities are implementing water conservation strategies and more stringent booking controls while closely monitoring Gatun Lake and other water sources.
During fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits per day up to June 30, based on official operational data. Between October and June, it recorded 10,726 transits, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to the same period the previous year. These figures predate the recent rainfall declines, which have led to tighter operational limits. The waterway connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and is crucial for trade routes involving containers, energy shipments, bulk commodities, and other cargo.
Water shortages lead to reduced transit capacity
The canal’s locks depend on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to lift and lower ships during crossings. Reservoir levels directly influence how many vessels can traverse the waterway during extended dry spells. The severe 2023 drought caused daily transits to drop to 22 in December as Gatun Lake’s levels fell to unusually low points. Later, capacity was restored as rainfall improved and conservation efforts stabilized water availability for both canal operations and public use.
In addition, the canal has modified vessel draft restrictions as part of its water management efforts. On Sept. 4, officials deferred a planned reduction in the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The current 48-foot limit remains after assessments of Gatun Lake levels and updated weather forecasts. Draft limits are critical because they restrict how heavily loaded ships can be, especially for heavier cargoes, impacting operational flexibility.
Booking protocols shift as capacity becomes limited
To adapt to the reduced available capacity, the canal has revised its booking and auction procedures. Daily auction slots now categorize vessels by cargo type, such as gas carriers, bulk carriers, container ships, and tankers. When conditions are equal, full container ships with the highest capacity are given priority for Neopanamax slots. Authorities encourage vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system, as limited capacity can cause longer wait times. Securing a reservation remains the only way to guarantee a transit date.
No official order has been issued to cut the daily limit to 29 ships. The administrator mentioned this level as a potential restriction for February or March if the drought conditions do not improve. Experts continue monitoring rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels before implementing further operational adjustments. The canal is also progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project, aiming to increase long-term water storage capacity. This initiative supports Panama’s broader efforts to ensure water supply for canal functioning and over half of the country’s population.